Institution,Culture and Location Choice of Chinese OFDI in the “Belt and Road”Countries:An Empirical Analysis of Panel Data Based on Threshold Models

林季红，厦门大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，经济学博士；刘莹， 湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院讲师，经济学博士。【中文摘要】“一带一路”沿线国家已然成为当前中国企业对外直接投资的重要方向。基于2005—2016年中国对外直接投资（OFDI)跨国面板数据，可考察影响中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资区位选择的东道国制度与文化因素。研究发现：中国OFDI倾向流入腐败控制水平较低和监管质量较差的东道国；双边权力距离差距加大会吸引中国OFDI进入，个人主义/集体主义、男性度与女性度、长期取向与短期取向的双边差异加大则会阻碍中国OFDI进入。运用Hansen门槛模型进一步考察制度和文化的互动关系及其影响发现:文化对制度具有补充效应，双边文化差异缩小可以减弱东道国腐败控制水平对中国OFDI的负效应，但该负效应的衰减呈现出非线性特点;而随着双边文化差异扩大，中国OFDI流入倾向于选择监管质量相对较高的“一带一路”沿线国家。 【Abstract】Countries along the “Belt and Road”have become major recipients of Chinese enterprises’ overseas foreign direction investment (OFDI). Based on the multinational panel data of Chinese OFDI from 2005 to 2016，this paper explores the relationship between institution，culture and the location choice of Chinese OFDI in the “Belt and Road” countries. The results show that China's OFDI tends to flow into host countries with low levels of corruption control and poor regulatory quality，and that a bigger bilateral power distance gap results in increased Chinese OFDI inflows，while greater bilateral differences between individualism and collectivism，masculinity and femininity，long-rterm and short-rterm orientation hinder Chinese OFDI inflows. Using the Hansen threshold regression model，we further study the interaction between institution，culture and their impacts on Chinese OFDI. The results indicate that culture has a complementary effect on in¬stitution. The negative effect of the host country's corruption control level on China's OFDI will decrease non - rlinearly with the narrowing of the bilateral cultural differences.With the expansion of bilateral cultural differences，China's OFDI inflows tend to favor countries with relatively high regulatory quality.湖南省哲学社会科学基金一般项目“中国制造业海外投资国家风险防控体系研究” (17YBA248)；国家社会科学基金青年项目“发展中大国经济开放度选择与开放路径研究”（14CJL015